It’s one of those comments you read and hear so often: “the team leading the table on New Years Day usually goes on to win the league”. We’ve always wondered just how true that was, because, in effect, that would have you believe that the league is finished by the time you’re finishing off the last of that Christmas turkey.
Now, for most non-Old Firm fans the Scottish League is mostly over way before New Year anyway (October is traditional), but in the interest of science and a cheeky bet, Inside Left puts on a lab coat, rubber gloves and oversized safety goggles, and sets out to investigate…
SPL Winners since 1999/00
With the exception of last season, every team that’s been top of the table at the turn of the year over the period we measured went on to win the title.
There’s also relatively little change in the teams finishing second, with all three of the challengers eventually being edged out by one half of the Old Firm, perhaps again underlining the uncompetitive nature of the Scottish game.
As befitting a competition dominated by two teams, it’s in the race for third spot where we see the most difference. In the last ten seasons, the team in third spot on New Year’s Day had changed by the end of the season: Celtic, Rangers, Hibs and Dundee United have all surrendered their places.
SPL Losers since 1999/00
Wondering if this ‘New Year’ doomsday scenario also held true for the teams that are relegated every year, we also took a look at the bottom of the table.
Like the winners of the SPL, there is little variation in the teams bottom of the league in January and the teams bottom of the league in May. In 2001/01 and 2002/03 Dundee United found themselves staring up at the rest of the league only to survive the drop in May, swapping positions with St Mirren and Motherwell, the teams directly above them at the start of January.
Predictions
So, given that the statement “the team at the top of the league at New Years goes on to win the league” appears to be true, who do we see at the top of the tree come the first game in January?
Rangers, the current league leaders following their 3-0 win over Dundee United last night, have the trickier set of fixtures coming up; they face Motherwell, Hibs and Dundee United. On paper Celtic have an easier time, with matches against Hearts, Hamilton and Kilmarnock still to come.
It’s a tough ask to assume that neither Rangers nor Celtic drop points between now and the New Year, but given Rangers face teams from the top half of the table, and Celtic only play teams from the bottom half of the table, our fearless prediction is that Celtic will pip Rangers to the top of the table come the New Year.
And hence, the title.
And there’s bad news for Eddie May. Assuming that Falkirk don’t improve much either, and based on past performances, we predict they’ll go down this year – though Kilmarnock will need to be careful to avoid doing what Dundee United did twice.
So there it is. As Chick Young would say, we can exclusively reveal that the statement is mostly true: the team leading the table on New Years Day usually does go on to win the league!
QED.
source: www.stato.com. The “New Year” positions are based on the league table on the first competitive day in January.
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- The SPL Weekend Preview
- Scottish Football SPL Preview
- Scottish Fitba Weekender
- Damn you Andrew Little! (or: “The Scottish Fitba Review”)
- The Monday Ballbag
Tags: Celtic, Dundee United, Hamilton, Hearts, Hibernian, Kilmarnock, Meat Pie, Motherwell, Predictions, Rangers, SPL, St. Mirren
